In contrast to many reality TV shows, The Great British Bake Off results aren’t influenced by a public
vote. The show is judged by experts in the field, instead of being a popularity contest like other
programmes. But what would the results show if Bake Off did rely on public opinion?
Compare My Move has crunched the numbers on the social data for series 10, analysing the bakers’ Instagram activity to
reveal the outcome if the public could vote, whether getting dumped has an effect on their follower count and how much
the contestants could earn from a single Instagram post. See our full interactive page.
Headline figures at a glance:
Henry Bird gained a follower increase of 6,040%, with an impressive 107,153 following count. He would win if the public could vote
Despite not even making the semi-final, Henry Bird can currently earn £461.47 per post (£7.53 pre-show) and runner up Alice Fevronia can earn £333.54 per post (£6.09 pre-show)
Winner David Atherton would have been dumped in week 7 based on followers, not even making it to the semi-final
Henry Bird gained an unprecedented increase of 29,200 followers after he left, and Michael Chakraverty saw 18,200 new followers after his exit
The most liked photos on Instagram all featured Henry Bird after he was eliminated from the competition, racking up a total of 100,700 likes
Jamie Finn saw the highest growth in followers for 3 consecutive weeks, even after his exit in episode 2
Finalist Stephanie Blackwell would have left the show in week 3 if there was a public vote, with just 2,432
followers, despite proceeding to win ‘Star Baker’ 4 times
Data was collected weekly, the day after the episode aired and taken from each contestant’s Instagram account. The average Instagram post earning came from Inkifi and the average salary was taken from Reed.
The full dataset can be found here.
How Would Bake Off Pan Out if The Public Voted?
Compare My Move tracked the bakers’ Instagram activity for 11 weeks, including pre-show data, their job title and salary,
as well as weekly follower counts. We discovered that the results would be drastically different if the outcome were to be
influenced by a public vote.
By working out who had the lowest following count each week, Compare My Move can reveal how the Bake Off final
could have looked like. As the table below shows, Henry Bird would have won the competition with an impressive 107,153
follower count, leading the way by 29,778 followers.
Another fan favourite, Jamie Finn, would have reached week 8 instead of exiting the show in week 2. Stephanie Blackwell,
who won Star Baker an impressive 4 times and even made it to the final 3, would have actually been dumped in week 3.
* For more see attached Judge's Vote vs Public Vote file.
Does Being Dumped Matter?
The short answer, no. We found that more often than not when a contestant was dumped, they gained the highest growth
in followers for that week. Michael Chakraverty was dumped in week 7 and soon gained 18,200 followers before the next
episode even aired.
Jamie Finn’s exit from the show shocked many fans, they all seemed to agree he was dumped too soon. We discovered
that Jamie had the most increase in followers for 3 consecutive weeks, including the week he left the competition. This
coincided with the bakers seeing the smallest growth in followers for episode 3.
Henry Bird attracted an unprecedented 29,200 followers after he left the tent, racking his total count up to 84,300 by week
9. However, David Atherton has just 59,577 followers as of the day after the final, despite being crowned the winner.
* For more see attached Follower Growth file.
How Much Can Contestants Earn From Instagram Posts?
We’ve analysed how much the bakers can earn per Instagram post, but can this year’s cast make a living from Instagram or
should they stick to their day job? We discovered that the public’s favourite baker, Henry Bird, is on track to make the most
dough from his Instagram posts, with one post earning him roughly £431.43.
The oldest contestant, Phil Thorne, will make the least from Instagram, despite consistently posting more frequently out
of the other bakers, with an expected earning of just £26.51 per post. Coincidently, Phil entered Bake Off with one of the
highest-earning jobs, whilst Henry was a student without a salary.
Winner David Atherton can currently earn £257.23 for a single Instagram post, whilst runner up Alice Fevronia and Michael
Chakraverty, who left the competition in week 7, have potential to earn £333.54 and £331.64 per post, with 77,375 and
77,025 followers respectively.
* For more see attached Contestant Earnings file.
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Press release distributed by Pressat on behalf of Compare My Move, on Monday 4 November, 2019. For more information subscribe and follow https://pressat.co.uk/