Betfair Exchange launches US Election Swingometer in Washington ‘C.D’ – County Durham… as odds shift again from Trump to Biden

Betfair, one of the UK’s biggest betting companies, headed to Washington in County Durham this week to launch its US Election Swingometer.

For those not in the know, Washington is the ancestral home of the USA’s founding father and first President, George Washington. This sleepy North East town attracts hundreds of American tourists every year to discover their nation’s history, where they can visit Old Washington Hall or the village green with a tree planted by former US President, Jimmy Carter.

As the 2020 US election race heats up, Betfair toured the village of Washington to speak to locals and get their views on the upcoming election, plus interviewed political and gambling experts as they launch their US election Swingometer, a minute-by-minute odds tracker, on the village green and at (a) White House.

Currently the two candidates are neck and neck on Betfair Exchange, just yesterday Donald Trump became the favourite for the first time in three months, but in the past 24 hours the odds have shifted again, and Joe Biden is now leading the race to The White House at evens, whereas Trump is just behind him at 21/20. It hasn’t always been this close, two weeks ago Biden was the big odds-on favourite at 8/13 (60%), while Trump trailed behind at 15/8 (40%). Throughout the campaign, the odds have been constantly swinging, back in February Biden was 99/1 (1%) to become the next US President when Bernie Sanders was the favourite to become the Democratic Candidate.

Paul Krishnamurty, Professional Political Gambler and Analyst said: “More than any politician in history, Trump cuts through, whether positive or negative, to a wider audience. You can see it in the debate figures, you can see it in the turnout. Therefore, this election is about him. Ask any Brit what they know about Trump – they’ll say everything. But ask about Biden? They’ve barely even heard of him.

“We know that 2020 is already shaping up to be different to 2016. Biden is already tracking higher in the polls than Clinton was at the same time, he’s a much more popular candidate and looking at the odds right now it is clear the punters, who make Biden the slight favourite, agree.

“I think Biden will win by a landslide by taking Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – the three states that Clinton didn’t win in 2016. Trump may have defied the odds to win four years ago, but I can’t see that happening again this time around.”

Sam Rosbottom, Betfair Spokesperson said: “Already there is huge interest in who will be the next US President on Betfair Exchange, with over £70 million wagered on the betting market. Joe Biden is the current favourite at evens, however almost 60% of the money has been bet on Donald Trump, who briefly went favourite yesterday for the first time in three months, and in the past 24 hours his odds have gone out to 21/20.

“During the last election, back in 2016, a record £199 million was bet, with over £75 million of that coming once the polls closed. Back then, Hillary Clinton was the 1/10 favourite on election day, and we all know what happened after that. Already this year we have seen some huge swings in the betting market, back in February, Joe Biden was 100/1 (just a 1% chance) to become the next US President, but as the months went on, the odds shifted in his favour, in August he had a 60% chance of winning, and since then his chances have decreased and it’s too tight to call.”

Ged Parker, Head of the Washington Historical Society said: “Our village has become more prominent as Americans have expressed interest in their history, especially George Washington’s family links to the area. Washington's ancestor initially had a manor about 35 miles away from the village, and through the local Bishop he swapped his residence for the Manor of Washington, and from that moment on he became William of Washington.

“Over the years, we have had a number of famous American visitors, including President Carter in 1977. Along with Prime Minister Jim Callaghan, the 39th President visited Washington Old Hall to learn more about the capital’s history and planted two trees on the village green which are visited by the many American tourists we have each year.

“The people of Washington are very welcoming, and we also play host to US ambassadors each year and will continue to do so, along with whoever wins in November.”

Aaron League, Deputy Editor of The Washington Way said: “As an American living in Washington, I certainly have a unique perspective on what’s currently happening in the election. I think people look to American politics because of its status as a world superpower. It may not have been as interesting ten years ago, but now when we’ve got this great caricature of a man in office it changes things.

“Here, it’s less about the party’s policies and more an election about the candidates. I think a lot of Brits, not just those here in Washington, are keeping a close eye on it.”

IN NUMBERS:

• Betfair Exchange Next US President Market - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
• Total traded to date: £70.7 Million
• Joe Biden: Evens (51% chance)
• Donald Trump: 21/20 (49%)

To keep up-to-date with live predictions on the US Election from Betfair Exchange and the latest political analysis from Paul Krishnamurty, visit: www.betfair.com/uselection and follow @BetfairExchange on twitter.